MMA fans tuning into this Saturday’s UFC event can expect to see Jairzinho Rozenstruik take on Jailton Almeida in the main event. Rozenstruik is hoping to build upon his first-round KO of Chris Daukaus last December.
Almeida is a grappling specialist with 11 of his 18 professional MMA victories coming by submission. His striking is good but his exposed chin can be vulnerable against stronger opponents.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
When Jairzinho Rozenstruik first entered the UFC, he rattled the heavyweight division like an earthquake. The former professional kickboxer took out his first four opponents and was a legitimate contender for the title. Despite that success, he suffered his first loss in the UFC cage when Francis Ngannou knocked him out in 20 seconds at UFC 249. Rozenstruik calls that performance “the worst of my career,” but he is determined to redeem himself in a main event fight against Jailton Almeida on Saturday.
The Brazilian contender holds a career record of 13-4 and has 12 of his 13 wins by KO. He has also beaten notable names such as Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski. However, the emergence of Ngannou has made it difficult for Rozenstruik to crack the top 10. That makes his meeting with Almeida so important.
Almeida is a grappler through and through. He has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has 11 of his 18 victories come by submission. He has also absorbed just two significant strikes in his last five fights and he can take advantage of Rozenstruik’s weakness on the mat.
Rozenstruik is a power-punching heavyweight, but his defense is very vulnerable on the ground. In fact, the only way he has been able to stop fighters like Curtis Blaydes and Ciryl Gane is by taking them down and controlling them for lengthy periods of time.
Rozenstruik’s main counterpunch is a left hook that he uses to shift his weight back and then load up for a powerful follow-up. He will often try to parry his opponent’s right hand with the left, allowing him to use that punch as a means of moving backward and looping a left hook into the head. That is a very dangerous strategy against an opponent who is putting on the pressure or throwing with a lot of volume. This will be the case against Almeida, who is an excellent striker with a surprisingly strong ground game. He has scored a total of seven takedowns in his last five fights and will be looking to add another to that number against Rozenstruik.
Jailton Almeida
In the main event at UFC FIGHT NIGHT, heavyweights Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida will clash. The bout will be broadcast on ABC at 3 p.m. ET from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. It will be part of a five-fight main card that will also feature a pair of light heavyweight sluggers as veteran Anthony Smith meets surging prospect Johnny Walker. SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani has analyzed the matchup and shares his picks for who will win.
In his biggest fight yet, Brazilian Almeida continued to demonstrate that he has the skills to be a top-tier heavyweight in the UFC. The 27-year-old steamrolled his opponent in a short bout, winning the fight via a rear-naked choke in just over four minutes.
The first thing that stands out about Almeida’s performance was his ability to avoid Rozenstruik’s considerable power. He did this by controlling the fight on the ground. Once he got the upper hand, he began to pound away at his opponent. This eventually forced Rozenstruik to roll over and give up his back. Almeida then sunk in the choke and made it difficult for him to escape.
As for Rozenstruik, he’s a one-dimensional offensive fighter who lacks the tools to deal with opponents that can defend his power. He’s struggled to make it past a few tough tests this year, including losing to Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov.
While some might be tempted to write off the fight as another loss for the former UFC champion, the truth is that his team knows what he’s capable of and are doing everything they can to get him in contention for a title shot. He’s a talented heavyweight, and his time will come.
As for the rest of the main card, it features some intriguing fights to watch. The first fight on the card is a light heavyweight battle between Mike Perry and Volkan Oguchi, while the following fight will see veteran Danillo Villegas take on rising star Mike Rusk. Both of these fights will be televised on ESPN+. For more on this and other fights on the card, be sure to check out our full preview for the event here.
Predictions
Rozenstruik is a talented striker who has a lot of power and can finish fights quickly. However, he is not the most well-rounded fighter in the world and has struggled with opponents with diverse skillsets. He needs to be careful not to let Almeida suffocate him in the early rounds, and it’s unlikely that he can outstrike him at range.
On the other hand, Almeida has a solid grappling game and has shown impressive improvement in this area over his UFC career. He has averaged 6.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a very effective ground attacker. He will likely look to pressure Rozenstruik into the clinch and then work for submissions.
Almeida is the better grappler and has a top-tier submission game. He is also the more powerful athlete and should be able to dominate this fight on the ground. Rozenstruik has been knocked out in three of his seven UFC fights and he’s never faced someone with the strength of Almeida.
The biggest question mark in this matchup is how well Rozenstruik can hold his own on the feet. He needs to improve his footwork and avoid getting sucked into the clinch. He also needs to develop a way to defend himself from the devastating strikes of Almeida.
If Rozenstruik can avoid the early onslaught from Almeida, he will have a good chance of making it to the finish. Almeida has a great wrestling base and will be able to use it to neutralize Rozenstruik’s explosiveness. He will then look to take the fight to the ground and soften him up with punches before finishing the fight with a submission.
With so much at stake in this fight, it is no surprise that the betting odds are so close. Both fighters have heavy hands and the winner of this fight will be decided in the first few rounds. However, the smart money is on Almeida to win by submission or KO/TKO at +100 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Schedule
The main event pits heavyweight contenders Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida against each other on Saturday. Rozenstruik enters this fight as the ninth-ranked heavyweight in the UFC, while his opponent is just a few spots lower in the 12th spot. The two are slated to meet on a card that also features a light heavyweight clash between No. 5 Anthony Smith and No. 7 Johnny Walker in the other top-tier headliner.
While Rozenstruik is a knockout artist in the heavyweight division, he’s struggled recently and faces an uphill battle to crack the top 10. The Surinamese fighter came into his UFC debut having steamrolled three of his previous four opponents. However, a 20-second loss to Francis Ngannou snapped his two-fight winning streak and has pushed his stock down a bit. He hopes a win against Almeida can restore some of that lost value and position him for future success in the division.
For his part, Almeida is a strong striker with a lot of power on his frame. He’s also a solid grappler with a high level of jiu-jitsu. He primarily works to take his opponent down and secure submission victories through ground-and-pound. While he’s struggled to land strikes against bigger opponents, he’s been able to hold his own against fighters of similar size.
This fight will be the first time that Almeida meets someone of this caliber in his MMA career. The 31-year-old has 11 submission wins on his resume and he averages 6.73 takedown attempts per 15 minutes inside the Octagon. He’s a nightmare matchup for a limited grappler like Rozenstruik.
The rest of the card will feature a variety of different fighters on the cusp of making it to the next level of their careers. The prelims include a light heavyweight clash between No. 8 Alexander Volkanovski and No. 16 Bo Nickal, as well as a middleweight fight between No. 13 Robert Whittaker and No. 18 Dricus Du Plessis. In addition to that, Jasmine Jones will fight Miranda Maverick in a Women’s Flyweight contest and Da’Mon Blackshear takes on Luan Luiz Lacerda in the Bantamweight division.
